Canada's Job Market Through Recessions and Recoveries - Why This Time is Different

   HIGHLIGHTS by Diana Petramala, Economist, Canada

• The hit to Canadian employment during the recession was not as large as could have been the case given the severity of the downturn, and the recovery thus far has outperformed that following the last two major recessions.
• Job growth has become more reliant on industries linked to domestic demand, and thus the labour market as benefited from the resilience of domestic spending.
• Moving into the second half of 2010, we anticipate slower than normal job creation, as the pace of economic recovery ratchets down.
• Growth in domestic demand is expected to cool to a modest pace of 1.5-2% over the next year and a half, significantly down from the robust 4.5-5% pace experienced over the last three quarters. As such, employment in industries tied to domestic spending will likely moderate in the coming months. In addition, a diminishing rate of U.S. growth will likely weigh on hiring in export-oriented industries.
• We anticipate average monthly job creation in the range of 15,000 to 20,000 over the second half of 2010, with a gradual decline in the unemployment rate to 7.7% by year end.

You can read more of this TD Economics report  here.